Predictions reveal how Ayrshire would vote in snap election

But the SNP's dominance of parliamentary seats in Ayrshire would continue if the next UK general election was held tomorrow, according to predictions. 

The website electoralcalculus.co.uk aggregates all the latest polls and applies them to the last election’s constituency-level results to see who would win a snap election. 

Their predictions were calculated before Thursday's two by-elections in England, in which Labour overturned two large Conservative majorities to win the seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.

Here we take a look at the Electoral Calculus predictions if a fresh general election to the House of Commons was called tomorrow...

North Ayrshire and Arran

This seat - to be renamed Ayrshire North and Arran at the next UK election has been held by the SNP's Patricia Gibson since 2015, when the party took a huge 48.5 per cent of the vote share. 

If an election was called tomorrow, Electoral Calculus says the SNP would hold on to the seat, but with a reduced vote share of 40.2 per cent. 

Electoral Calculus predicts that Labour would see its vote share almost double to 26.9 per cent, with the Conservative share falling to 21.3 per cent. 

The website gives the SNP a 77 per cent chance of winning the seat, with Labour's chances rated at 17 per cent and the Conservatives at just 5 per cent.

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Kilmarnock and Loudoun has long been a stronghold of the SNP, who have held the seat comfortably since the party's Scottish landslide in 2015 with large majorities. 

Sitting MP Alan Brown received a 50 per cent share of the vote at the last election in 2019, and would retain his seat according to predictions. 

The SNP would see a 42.5 per cent vote share if an election were held tomorrow, leading Labour, who would see their share jump from 19 per cent to around 32 per cent. 

The Conservatives would see their vote share fall by almost 10 per cent in the constituency to 15.2 per cent. 

Electoral Calculus gives the SNP a 75 per cent chance of winning the seat, with a 24 per cent chance for Labour and just one per cent for the Conservatives.

Ayrshire Central

The current MP, Dr Philippa Whitford of the SNP, was also elected in 2015, on a 27 per cent vote swing from Labour. 

Electoral Calculus predicts that if an election were held tomorrow the SNP would hold the seat with a vote share of 37.8 per cent, down from their 46.2 per cent share in 2019.

Electoral Calculus forecasts that Labour would receive a 27.4 per cent share of the vote, with the Conservatives getting 24.7 per cent. 

The site gives the SNP a 69 per cent chance of winning this seat, with Labour on 20 per cent and the Conservatives on 11 per cent.

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock

Electoral Calculus predicts that this seat would be the most closely contested in Ayrshire in a snap general election. 

The SNP's Allan Dorans got a 43.5 per cent vote share at the 2019 election, and the website predicts the party would hold the seat again. 

It predicts the SNP would receive a lower 35.2 per cent share of the vote, with the Conservatives and Labour close behind on 28.1 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively. 

The site gives the SNP a 56 per cent chance of winning, with the Conservatives on 24 per cent and Labour on 20 per cent. 

Thursday's by-elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire were caused by the resignations of the Conservative duo of Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorries.

Mr Pincher announced his resignation in September, having previously said he would stand down at the next general election, having had the Conservative whip removed in June last year for allegedly groping two men while drunk.

It emerged later that then Prime Minister Boris Johnson had known about allegations around Mr Pincher's behaviour when he was appointed the Conservatives' deputy chief whip in February 2022, but had not dismissed him - leading to a crisis that ultimately resulted in Mr Johnson's resignation.

Ms Dorries formally resigned as an MP in August, almost three months after announcing her intention to stand down.